Population pyramids show Alaska’s dramatic 100-year transformation

Click the graph below for a time-lapse view of the changes in Alaska’s population.

Age and sex in Alaska, 1910 through 2010

A “population pyramid” is a graph that shows population data by age and sex, a favorite tool of researchers because these characteristics shed light on an area’s potential workforce, dependent population, and effects of historical events. Combined with data on births and deaths, they also provide information on family size, life expectancy, and migration.

The striking change in the shape of Alaska’s population pyramid reflects massive socioeconomic change over the last 100 years. In 1910, when the “District” of Alaska’s population was just 64,000 and its economic activity was largely from mining and canneries, there were nearly two-and-a-half men to each woman. The skew was largely attributable to non-Natives, and the pattern of increase by age between 1910 and 1930 shows a significant number stayed. Alaska’s population dropped with the end of the gold rush era to 1930, though the Alaska Native population increased from approximately 25,000 in 1910 to 30,000 in 1930, making up more than half the state’s population.

Between 1940 and 1950, World War II and the start of the Cold War had begun to affect Alaska’s population, which increased by more than 75 percent — the most for any period. A large proportion of these residents were 20-to 24-year-old GIs. Men just out of high school remained the largest age group through statehood to 1970, when our nation’s military was built up for the Korean War and then the Vietnam War. Many servicemen would stay in Alaska or return with families.

The construction of the massive Trans-Alaska Pipeline System in the 1970s produced the state’s largest recorded turnover of population. Alaska netted more than 30,000 new residents in a single year (1974-1975), and lost more than 13,000 just three years later. Overall, Alaska gained more than 100,000 people that decade, and by 1980 the age-sex distribution was more like that of the nation — a less skewed male-to-female ratio but still a large proportion of baby boomers who were born between the end of World War II and the early 1960s. The population became more urban, and though the Alaska Native population continued its steady increase, Natives were now just over 15 percent of the state’s population of roughly 400,000.

The pipeline and high oil prices produced huge growth in the 1980s, followed by a dramatic economic downturn when those prices dropped, and finally the start of a recovery. The state gained nearly 150,000 people over the decade, the largest number for any period. While migration played a huge role in the change, so did the shape of the population pyramid. With a large proportion of baby boomers aged 20-39 came an increase in Alaska births and a large generation that is often called the “echo boomers.”

Alaska has continued to transform since 1990, but the change is less tied to individual events. The population has aged with the state’s large proportion of baby boomers. Many echo boomers moved away in the 2000s when they reached college age and are now returning, adding to the state’s population and workforce. The male-to-female ratio has increased again due in part to military buildups since 2000, and the Alaska Native population is now estimated to be as high as 138,000, or 19 percent of the total population.

Alaska has been defined by its booms and busts, but even without them the state has changed greatly. The Alaska of 1910 and the Alaska of 2010 are in ways incomparable, yet the state remains a sparsely settled frontier with a continuously changing population.

 

Alaska foreclosure rate in late ’80s topped recent U.S. levels

Nearly 1 percent of active residential mortgages in Alaska were in foreclosure at the end of the third quarter of 2011, in contrast to nearly 4 percent nationwide. The nation is still recovering from a severe jump in foreclosures at the height of the recent recession. There’s no question about it — national foreclosures were a crisis in 2009.

However, while Alaska more or less weathered the storm that battered so many communities, Alaska is no stranger to foul economic weather. Although Alaska’s rate has been far below the nation’s over the past few years, the recession in Alaska in the late 1980s was severe. Based on data collected by the Mortgage Bankers Association, the Alaska foreclosure rate at the height of the 1980s recession was higher than the national foreclosure rate in 2009.

100 years of census work: not a job for wimps

U.S. Census Bureau hired 2,777 workers in Alaska for the 2010 Census, with salaries and reimbursements of about $27 million and the average worker making more than $9,000. Among these workers were enumerators — the ones doing the actual counting and follow-up in some hard-to-get-to areas.

Their temporary jobs ended in December 2010, and they have probably moved on to other adventures. But with all due respect to the men and women who combed the state looking for uncounted Alaskans in 2010, most of the challenges they faced performing their duties were probably tame compared to those who had that job 100 years ago. Adventure was just part of their job description.

From the report of the chief special agent in charge of counting in the Fourth District in 1910:

“Because of the absolute lack of beaten trails and the fact that the snow lies on ground loose like so much salt, no matter what the depth may be, it was necessary throughout all of their work to snowshoe ahead of their dog teams; and when one considers their isolation, often traveling for days without shelter other than a tent and fur robes, it can be understood to what sacrifice some of these men went to visit some of these far-away prospectors’ cabins and claims. However, no man who travels in this part of the country ever considers there is any hardship unless there is loss of life, and they take their work stoically and good-naturedly, though they drop in their tracks at the end of the day.

“That the service lost none of the men from freezing to death, and that every man returned safely is a matter of congratulation and good fortune.”

The same year, from a Second District report:

“On the way to the nearest camp the party was blown off a slope into an open mountain creek. The sled had to be rolled over to get it out of the stream and to free the baggage of water. Some of the baggage was spilled in the upset, and since life depended upon speed in the race to make a distant camp before freezing, the lost baggage, which included the census pouch, was not missed until the sled was unpacked. With clothing frozen stiff and various parts of the body frosted the little party succeeded in reaching the isolated camp for which they had set out. Three attempts were made subsequently to retrace their steps in order to recover the pouch but the storm was too severe to face. The agent enumerated the camp on some waste paper and returned about 200 miles for more census supplies.

“This agent’s next experience was in the mountains, where he found one of the survivors of the wrecked steamer Farullon, who had been living on native food, had frozen his fingers, and had himself cut off one gangrenous member’ with his knife. The enumerator could not leave a fellow being in this condition, and conveyed him to the nearest settlement, which was fully 60 miles away.”


Note: The Research and Analysis Section is creating historic maps, including these districts, that will soon be available on our Web site.

Initial unemployment claims down 767 from previous week

Initial claims for unemployment insurance (seasonally adjusted) in Alaska for the week ending Nov. 26 were down 767 from the previous week, to 2,333. The four-week moving average – which reduces the data’s week-to-week volatility and makes underlying trends more visible – was 2,558, down 63 from the previous week.

Wind energy in Alaska

Alaska’s goal is to generate 50 percent of its electricity through renewable resources by 2025, according to a 2010 bill passed by the Legislature. And one thing we know Alaska has is an abundance of potential wind energy, especially along the coasts. Even a small child could tell you it’s very windy in parts of Alaska, and scientific data would back it up.

Electrical power generated by the wind seems like an easy and affordable way to help Alaskans beat the high cost of energy, but the realities of bringing that power to market are complex.

Wind turbines work well, but are expensive to install. Alaska’s unique environment can also mean higher construction costs and obstacles. Foundations built on permafrost, transporting equipment to remote locations, and arctic weather are just a few of the challenges. Also, most rural power stations operate independently of any larger electrical grid.

Alaska has 116 wind turbines installed in 26 communities, including projects that are nearly complete.[1] The existing projects, most of which are in small towns or villages along our western coastline, reduce the amount of diesel needed to power places such as Savoonga, Tin City, Hooper Bay, Perryville, Chevak, and Kongiganak. Although wind technology has been around for decades, most of these turbines are less than five years old.

In June, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development published its first Alaska Green Jobs Report through a grant from the U.S. Department of Labor. The report quantified green employment in Alaska for the first time, and researchers found green work in 145 occupations spread throughout Alaska’s industries. You can read the entire report here . For more on wind turbine technology in Alaska’s rural areas, see the feature “Renewable Energy in Alaska,” on page 12 of the Green Jobs Report.

[1] According to information provided by the Alaska Energy Authority.

(Click the maps below to enlarge.)

Poverty is different in Alaska

Alaska is a high-cost place to live, which can be especially challenging for those who have the least. To accommodate these high costs, federal poverty guidelines are 25 percent higher in Alaska than in the Lower 48. (Hawaii also has special poverty guidelines.) The guidelines are used to determine eligibility for a number of federal programs.

In Alaska in 2010, a person was considered to be living in poverty if he or she earned up to $13,600 annually, or up to $27,940 for a family of four. For comparison, the average annual wage in the state was $47,700, as shown in the chart below.

According to the 2010 American Community Survey, 9.9 percent of all individuals and 7.2 percent of families in Alaska were living at or below the poverty line.

Federal Poverty Guidelines for Alaska, 2010

Sources: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, U.S. Census Bureau

Initial unemployment claims down 458 from previous week

Initial claims for unemployment insurance (seasonally adjusted) in Alaska for the week ending Nov. 12 were down 458 from the previous week, to 2,171. The four-week moving average — which reduces the data’s week-to-week volatility and makes underlying trends more visible — was 2,518, down 199 over the previous week. The moving average is elevated in 2011, though still below 2010’s high point of 2,962.

 As shown below, average claims hovered around 1,750 for much of the last decade, but they climbed significantly in late 2008 due to the U.S. recession and remain at a historically high level.   

More from author of Bristol Bay region profile

Mali Abrahamson, Department of Labor economist and author of the Bristol Bay regional profile in November’s Alaska’s Economic Trends responds to questions from Mike Mason of KDLG radio in Dillingham.

In the article, you wrote that the Bristol Bay region is in many ways the cultural and ecological crossroads of Alaska. Why is that?

As I was researching this article I learned the area is home to many different Alaska tribal groups, not just a few. Second, the fishermen, or any maritime activity, throughout history will have a more diverse workforce because of its mobile nature, picking up workers from all over the world. Ecologically and geographically, the variety of northern latitude ecosystems is as good as it gets: high mountain, tundra, big lakes, little lakes, big rivers, little rivers, and of course the ocean fisheries: not just salmon, but herring, crab, and  marine mammals.

Can you give me an overview of the migration patterns in the Bristol Bay region? 

In the short term, there is a repetitive seasonal migration as workers come to the canneries and other summer jobs. In the longer term, though, some years population grows and some years it declines. The 10-year trend shows a shrinking population. All three BORCAs (boroughs/census areas) have seen net out-migration that exceeds the natural population increase.

There is a variety of socioeconomic reasons people choose to move — from family to jobs to not liking the weather — but migration from rural areas to urban  is a common trait of economic development within a larger state or country. 

Do we have a good understanding of the employment picture in the region? Are there industry segments that are not represented or difficult to represent in the data?

The one big “gap” in our wage and salary employment that is critical to the region is seafood harvesters or fishermen. Because of unemployment insurance law, they are exempt from reporting wages or employment of crew. We do know how important those workers are to many agencies including the Department of Labor, and we have alternative methods of estimating how many workers are in the area without having access to the same records that we do for, say, school teachers.

The fishing industry dominates the economy in the summer. Can you characterize the economy the rest of the year?

Employment in the year-round economy is mostly about everyday living. Kids are going to school and people travel, buy groceries, go to the bank, and still transport goods. Any community needs health and social services year-round. So there are year-round private sector jobs in transportation, health care, retail, and a variety of other services while there are government jobs in education and, for example, the U.S. Postal Service. That being said, there are fishery-related jobs –  while not in the thousands — that remain in the area after the harvest seasons are over and through the winter months.

What did you learn or find interesting about the data, or about the region in your research?

I grew up in Homer so there was some general familiarity, but what continues to astound me about this area and the fishing industry is the human effort that surrounds these fisheries. The thousands of workers that flood in for the few short months in the summer and all the resources that they require as well as the logistical aspect of moving goods, people, and fish in and out in such a short time is fascinating.

Foreclosures down in third quarter of 2011

Residential foreclosures in Alaska are down 14 percent from this time last year, at 333 statewide in the third quarter of 2011. Nearly 60 percent of those were in the Anchorage/Mat-Su region, where about half of Alaska’s population lives.

The number of foreclosures also fell in the Interior and Gulf Coast regions, which combined were home to another 30 percent of the statewide total. Foreclosures increased in Southeast, Southwest, and Northern regions, but these areas are too small to substantially impact the statewide number.

Residential foreclosures peaked in Alaska in the third quarter of 2008 at 408, and have remained higher than the 10-year average since late 2007. Third-quarter foreclosure numbers are typically higher than the other three quarters. The charts below show third-quarter foreclosure counts through the decade.

A comparison of third-quarter foreclosures

A comparison of third-quarter foreclosures from 2000 to 2011.

For more foreclosure comparisons, see The Alaska Housing Finance Corporation.

Alaska’s heavyweight health care industry

Graph of Alaska employment broken down by industry
Nearly one in 10 Alaska jobs is in health care

The August issue of Alaska Economic Trends includes an article on Alaska’s growing health care sector. In 2010, the health care industry accounted for about 9 percent of jobs in Alaska. It was the fourth largest industry, with 31,800 jobs and a payroll of $1.53 billion.

During the past 10 years, health care has created more new jobs than any other sector of Alaska’s economy. Between 2001 and 2010, the industry added 10,000 jobs, outpacing all other large industries. During the most recent recession, many of Alaska’s industries lost jobs or were stagnant, but health care continued to grow.

This upward trend is expected to continue. Between 2008 and 2018 — the current 10-year forecast period — health care is forecasted to grow by 26.1 percent and add more than 7,000 jobs. In contrast, retail trade — the second biggest gainer — is projected to create 3,000 new jobs. Even in Alaska’s smallest rural communities, where jobs are often scarce, health care offers year-round employment opportunities.

An aging population is one of the main reasons for the anticipated job growth in health care, as an increasing population of senior citizens is likely to generate demand for services. As more baby boomers turn 65, Alaska will have more senior citizens than at any other time in history.

In the 2010 Census, Alaska had 54,938 senior citizens. If current projections are accurate, there could be 124,857 people ages 65 and older by 2034. With a major customer base for health care likely to increase by more than 125 percent, the population growth will most likely equate to continued industry growth.

Graph of growth in Alaska's health care employment

Nine years of growth in Alaska health care

1 Employment in exhibits 1 and 2 includes public and private sectors.
2 ‘Other’ in Exhibit 1 includes other services, private education, social assistance, and wholesale trade.